讀後心得

On April 3, Trump announced a tariff list covering 185 countries, but notably excluded Russia and Belarus, which raised concerns. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that due to sanctions against Russia, trade with the country is nearly impossible; however, in reality, there are still strategic materials imported from Russia. Although the trade volume has decreased, it remains significant. Some experts believe that Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on Russia sends a political signal of improving relations with Moscow. Furthermore, analyses indicate that even if U.S.-Russia relations improve in the future, it will be difficult for trade levels to return to their former state.

Trump announced on Thursday (April 3) a list of countries and regions that would be subjected to equivalent tariffs, covering a total of 185 countries worldwide. However, surprisingly, very few countries were excluded from the list, including Russia and Belarus, while Ukraine did not receive an exemption. The U.S. Secretary of Treasury stated in a media interview that due to existing sanctions, there has been no trade between the United States and Russia. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and other major European countries imposed further sanctions on Russia. A White House spokesperson emphasized that U.S. sanctions have stopped “any meaningful trade” with Russia. But is the situation really like that? What goods does the U.S. import from Russia?

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the volume of goods trade between the U.S. and Russia has significantly decreased since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war: dropping from about $36 billion in 2021 to approximately $3.5 billion in 2024. Therefore, the claim of “no trade with Russia” does not reflect reality. Although the volume of goods imported from Russia is not large, they are significant strategic materials for the U.S., such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. While current trade volumes are far below pre-war levels, this does not explain why Trump did not include Russia on the tariff list. For example, the U.S. imposes a 27% tariff on imported goods from Kazakhstan, with its trade volume with the U.S. roughly equivalent to that of Russia, about $3.4 billion, of which $2.3 billion is imported from the U.S. The trade volume with Ukraine is even lower, at about $2.9 billion, of which $1.2 billion is imports, yet it is included in Trump’s tariff list and subjected to a 10% punitive tariff.

In terms of taxation, Trump’s list even includes uninhabited small islands, yet it spares Belarus. While other sanctioned countries like Venezuela are included in Trump’s new tariff list, similarly sanctioned countries such as Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus are exempted. A political scholar indicated that this seems to be a gesture of symbolic tolerance. The U.S. has not released bilateral trade data with North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, but according to estimates from the United Nations, the bilateral trade volume between the U.S. and Belarus reaches tens of millions of dollars annually. For example, in 2024, the U.S. imported goods worth about $21 million from Belarus. Therefore, it can be inferred that the criteria for compiling this tariff list are not entirely based on the trade scale with any given country.

It is noteworthy that Canada and Mexico were not included in the new tariff list, yet most goods imported from the U.S. by these two countries have already been subjected to a 25% tariff. Why did Trump not impose tariffs on Russia? Experts analyze that Trump excluding Russia from the tariff list is a clear political signal showing that improving relations with Moscow is a priority for him. Russian authorities have understood this signal, as one of the Russian presidential envoys mentioned during a recent visit to Washington that the restoration of dialogue between the U.S. and Russia is “a difficult and gradual process,” and stated that both sides are ready to cooperate in international affairs and the economic sphere.

Another scholar believes that Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on Russia may relate to diplomatic contacts between the two countries, pointing out that imposing tariffs during the Russian envoy's visit would be untimely. This scholar added that if the Trump administration is willing, it could still impose tariffs on Russia in the future. Additionally, experts point out that the U.S. is still importing Russian nuclear fuel, fertilizers, and platinum metals, and imposing high tariffs on these goods could lead to rising energy prices in the U.S., which contradicts Trump's policy goals. However, some viewpoints also mention that the current trade volume between the U.S. and Russia is far less than that of China or Europe with Russia, and it may not even recover to pre-war levels. As for whether it is possible to restore the previous trade scale in the future, experts believe that even if U.S.-Russia relations show signs of easing, trade levels will not return to previous figures, as financial, logistical, and sanction-related restrictions remain, and China has already partially taken over the Russian market.