讀後心得

Trump recently announced a list of countries that will be subject to reciprocal tariffs, including 185 nations, but Russia and Belarus were excluded. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury stated that trade between the United States and Russia is almost nonexistent due to existing sanctions. However, data shows that since the Russia-Ukraine war, U.S.-Russia trade has decreased to about $3.5 billion but still includes imports of essential materials such as fertilizers. On the other hand, Trump's list imposes tariffs on Ukraine, which has raised questions. Political experts suggest that Trump’s move may be an attempt to improve relations with Russia, and the Russian side has already felt this signal. In the future, it remains unclear whether U.S.-Russia trade will recover, as relevant sanctions and market changes will continue to affect bilateral relations.

Trump announced on Thursday (April 3) a list of countries and regions that will be subject to equivalent tariffs, covering a total of 185 countries worldwide. However, it is questionable why Russia and Belarus are excluded while Ukraine is not exempted. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury pointed out that due to current sanctions, there is no trade activity between the U.S. and Russia. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and other countries imposed further sanctions on Russia. The White House spokesperson emphasized that these sanctions made “any meaningful trade” with Russia impossible. But is this actually the case? According to data, the volume of goods trade between the U.S. and Russia has significantly decreased since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war: from about $36 billion in 2021 to approximately $3.5 billion in 2024. Therefore, the claim that there is "no trade with Russia" is not entirely accurate. Although the volume of imported goods from Russia is small, they are strategic materials critical for the U.S., such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. Despite the current trade volume being greatly reduced compared to before the war, this does not explain why Trump did not include Russia on the tariff list.

For instance, the U.S. imposes a 27% tariff on imports from Kazakhstan, with trade volume comparable to that with Russia, approximately $3.4 billion, of which $2.3 billion is imported. In contrast, trade with Ukraine is even lower, about $2.9 billion, of which $1.2 billion is imports, yet it has been included in Trump's tariff list and is subject to a 10% penalty tariff.

Although other sanctioned countries like Venezuela are also on Trump's new tariff list, countries such as Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus are exempt. Some commentators believe that this appears to be a symbolic gesture of tolerance. The U.S. has yet to disclose trade volume data with North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, but it is estimated that U.S. trade with Belarus totals tens of millions of dollars each year; for example, in 2024, the U.S. is expected to import about $21 million worth of goods from Belarus. Therefore, the criteria for compiling this tariff list are not entirely based on trade volume.

For instance, almost uninhabited islands like Heard Island and McDonald Islands are surprisingly included on the list, yet these areas have virtually no substantive trade relations with the U.S. Another notable phenomenon is that Canada and Mexico were not included in the new tariff list, even though most of their goods have already been subjected to a 25% tariff.

So, why did Trump not impose tariffs on Russia? Some views suggest that Trump’s exclusion of Russia sends a clear political signal aimed at improving relations with Moscow. The Russian side seems to have understood this signal, as relevant high-level officials are visiting Washington, emphasizing the willingness to cooperate in international affairs and economic fields. Additionally, experts point out that the lack of tariffs on Russia may be related to diplomatic contacts between the two countries. During this period, imposing tariffs appears inappropriate for diplomatic engagement; the Trump administration may still choose to impose tariffs on Russia in the future.

Experts also point out that while U.S. trade volume with Russia is far less than with Europe or China, the U.S. still imports important materials such as nuclear fuels, fertilizers, and platinum metals. Tariffs could potentially lead to increased energy prices in the U.S., which contradicts Trump’s policy goals. However, even if U.S.-Russia relations experience a thaw, a full restoration of previous trade levels remains uncertain, as factors such as market conditions, sanctions, and financial restrictions still exist.