讀後心得

The Süddeutsche Zeitung commentary指出，特朗普在發布新關稅政策時，更注重的是出其不意，而非透明的溝通。這些政策不僅意在對抗中國，還影響到美國的盟友，如歐盟和日本，甚至可能導致全球自由貿易秩序的破壞。特朗普的做法使美國的經濟增長面臨威脅，並讓全球市場對美國的信譽產生疑慮，可能使中美之間的競爭關係更加複雜。隨著許多國家尋求新的貿易夥伴，美國的國際地位可能受到進一步挑戰。

The commentary published by the Süddeutsche Zeitung points out that any serious government should maintain transparency when releasing major decisions related to tariffs, allowing the stock market and the public to fully understand the situation. However, when U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on Thursday, he was clearly more focused on the "surprise" effect. The commentary states: "Trump did not do this; instead, he tried to create as much chaos as possible. His behavior in the White House resembles that of a solo performer as well as a dictator. He relies on the emergency powers of the presidency to set tariff policies and lets various rumors about tax rates circulate until the very last moment before making a decision. In Trump's view, the anxious waiting of all parties is a reflection of his strong position, and he firmly believes that this can secure the greatest benefit for the United States."

Trump's ambiguous strategy is not only directed at competitors; although China is the largest target, the EU, Vietnam, Japan, and Switzerland are also on his list for tariffs, all of which have been close allies of the United States for decades. At the end of March, Trump’s trade advisor stated in an interview that some countries have exploited the U.S. to become their colonies, including Germany and Japan. He claimed that Trump's goal is to "liberate" the United States on "Liberation Day."

Commentary regarding the China-U.S. trade war indicates that Trump's tariff policy not only fails to restrain China but may actually benefit it. "These tariffs will obviously be long-term. Trump shows a desire to revitalize America's national strength to counterbalance China, but his actions are simply handing opportunities to China." The U.S. was once a pioneer of free trade, but has now become closed off, prompting former allies to seek more reliable partners. The European Union and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have become potential collaboration partners, and even those who sought to isolate China during Trump’s presidency are gradually becoming more prominent.

In an ideal scenario, these alternative partners might salvage some of the achievements and prosperity of free trade, but it is very likely that China will take the opportunity to expand its influence. In the worst-case scenario, the EU could splinter as a result. The President of the European Commission emphasized that Europe will remain united and stated that the EU will negotiate with the U.S. to eliminate trade barriers, but will also be ready with countermeasures.

The Frankfurter Rundschau also commented that Trump's tariff policy will weaken global free trade, and the relationship between the U.S. and its allies will face unprecedented pressure. Especially, Trump’s tariffs on the EU, Japan, and South Korea not only harm the interests of these countries but also pose challenges to alliance relations. "Fortunately, Europe's economic strength far exceeds its military capabilities, and if Trump really starts a 'brother war' against Europe, Europe has the capacity to respond. In the medium to long term, this could even become an opportunity to reduce Europe’s dependency on the U.S. in terms of military and economic technology, while expanding its own trade alliances."

The Wiesbadener Kurier pointed out that despite multiple warnings prior, Trump ultimately pushed forward the "reciprocal tariffs" plan, which poses an assault on global free trade. If Trump's tariff plan is implemented, it will lead to rising prices, further increasing inflationary pressures, suppressing economic growth, and creating artificial barriers to trade, which will pose risks to the global economy and the social structure of the United States. Ultimately, it will be ordinary people who suffer, not the wealthy seeking tax cuts.

This tariff policy has no connection to rationality; it is entirely driven by self-interest and resentment, underpinned by a deeply ingrained belief that the U.S. has been deceived by its trading partners. In addition, Trump may cause the U.S. to lose its overseas markets in the long term and lead global trade to shift towards other markets. With economic losses, political losses will follow, causing fundamental changes in global geopolitics.