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2025-04-20

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Trump's reciprocal tariff policy sweeps the globe. Will it trigger a trade war?

Trump's reciprocal tariff policy sweeps the globe. Will it trigger a trade war?
讀後心得
U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on April 2, affecting countries including Japan and China. A 10% baseline tariff will take effect on April 5, while the highest tariffs will begin on April 9, which will be added on top of the existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. U.S. manufacturing faces a threat of high costs, which could impact investment and employment. The European Union and the Italian government both stated that they would take countermeasures, emphasizing the need to avoid negative effects of a trade war on the West. Analysts predict that these tariffs will harm economic growth in the U.S. and globally.

On April 2, the President of the United States announced a new round of tariffs, affecting countries including America's closest allies like Japan, as well as its competitor China. A base tariff of 10% will take effect on April 5, with the maximum tariffs for various countries officially launching on April 9. Additionally, these new tariffs will further accumulate on top of the steel, aluminum, and automobile tariffs already imposed by the U.S. on China.

Domestic reactions in the U.S. surfaced quickly, with the head of the National Association of Manufacturers stating, “Many American manufacturers are already facing very slim profit margins, and the high costs of the new tariffs will threaten investments, jobs, and supply chains, further undermining America’s international competitiveness in manufacturing.” At the same time, the leader of the Consumer Technology Association warned, “President Trump’s global equivalent tariffs will further drive up inflation, lead to job losses, and may even trigger an economic recession.”

In response to these tariffs, the President of the European Commission emphasized, “We are finalizing a series of countermeasures regarding steel tariffs and are preparing further actions in case negotiations fail.” Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of Italy took a more conciliatory tone, stating, “We will strive to reach an agreement with the U.S. to prevent a trade war from undermining the position of Western countries and benefiting other global competitors.”

From the investors' perspective, analysts at Deutsche Bank pointed out that the level of the new U.S. tariffs reaches the market's worst expectations, predicting that the U.S. economic growth could suffer a loss of 1-1.5% as a result. For China, after imposing a 34% tariff, the total tax rate faced by its products will reach 54%. Furthermore, economists from market research institutions have indicated that the scale of the new tariffs exceeds expectations and have initially forecasted that under such high tariffs, China’s GDP will decline by 0.5%, while the economies of the Eurozone and Japan could each decrease by about 0.2%.

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