讀後心得

The Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung commented on Trump's tariff policy, pointing out that this move cannot achieve economic independence; rather, it will exacerbate inflation in the United States and suppress economic growth. For the affected countries, if they choose to retaliate, the world may return to mercantilism, leading to an economic crisis. Europe should avoid retaliatory tariffs to uphold the trading system and strengthen ties with Asian and Latin American countries. The newspaper Nachrichten noted that European goods are cheaper for American consumers due to exchange rates, which may encourage Trump to intensify policies of devaluing the dollar, potentially triggering a currency war, where the real winners are often bystanders. As for The Wall Street Journal, they believe that Trump's tariff policy is effectively biased towards China and may prompt other countries to establish closer trade relations with China. The Independent emphasized that Trump's protectionism will impoverish Americans, and there will be no winners in a trade war; all parties should exercise restraint to avoid worsening the situation.

• A Swiss newspaper commented on Trump's latest tariff policy, believing that Trump yearns to achieve an economically completely independent America, wanting to produce all steel, furniture, cars, and ships in a self-sufficient manner. However, this protectionist approach not only cannot usher in America's golden age, but will instead impose heavy costs on consumers and producers. Although the United States has a large domestic market, the impact of foreign trade on its economy is still far less than that of Germany and Switzerland. The tariff policy will exacerbate inflationary pressures in the United States and stifle economic growth. The key question currently is how the affected countries will respond to Trump's policies. If these countries are angered and retaliate, the world may return to an era of mercantilism, which would trigger a severe global economic crisis. To prevent this situation, Europe should try to avoid implementing retaliatory tariffs to uphold the global trade system and strengthen free trade relations with like-minded countries. The EU and Switzerland could take the lead in this regard, enhancing economic ties with Asian countries, including China and Latin America, that are also impacted by American protectionism.

• Another publication pointed out that the widening interest rate gap across the Atlantic and the decline of the euro against the dollar has made European goods cheaper for American consumers, partially offsetting the effects of tariffs. However, if exchange rate changes render trade policies ineffective, Trump will not sit idly by. Trump's advisors even devised the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which includes proposals for a significant devaluation of the dollar. If the US and Europe start competing to devalue their currencies, China, as a currency-controlled country, will certainly not stand by. In a currency war, the winners are often bystanders. Europe should focus on enhancing its core competitiveness, signing new trade agreements, and demonstrating to financial markets that it remains a stable pillar in the current turbulent world.

• Regarding the series of "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump, some opinions point out that these tariffs seem to be merely nominal "reciprocities." Trump imposes a 10% "base tariff" on all countries as a threshold for products entering the US market. At the same time, China faces a 34% tariff, Japan 24%, the EU 20%, and India 24%. This new wave of tariffs provides China with further opportunities to leverage its massive market to win over America's allies, primarily targeting South Korea and Japan, with Europe also in China's plans. With the outlook for the US market uncertain, the likelihood of these countries establishing closer trade relations with China increases, while the chances of implementing technology export controls against China in cooperation with the US decrease. The reshaping of the global economic landscape will have far-reaching impacts, which may not open the so-called "new golden age" as touted by Trump.

• Some commentators believe that under Trump's tariff policy, "America First" has transformed into "America Only." While this may not significantly affect Americans, trade does not need to become a zero-sum game. Gradual relaxation of trade restrictions can ultimately drive productivity and economic growth, and history has repeatedly proven that trade wars not only have no winners but may also trigger real wars. Tariffs will make Americans poorer, reduce corporate competitiveness, and retaliatory measures from other countries will cut off vital export markets, particularly affecting farmers and the oil industry. Import taxes cannot bring in the massive fiscal revenues that Trump predicts, nor can they restore American jobs. At present, the opportunity to engage in dialogue with Trump seems to have passed. The only hope is that this chaos may ultimately lead to a new order, allowing the US and its major trading partners to reach lower tariffs through negotiation. To avoid the escalation of retaliatory tariff wars, all parties must exercise restraint.