讀後心得

After Trump announced new tariffs, global stock markets plunged, with the S&P 500 index plummeting 4.8%, marking its worst performance since 2020. Notable brand stocks like Nike, Apple, and Target saw significant declines. Trump insists that the tariffs will boost the U.S. economy, but experts are concerned that they will trigger inflation and economic slowdown, potentially leading to a 1% decrease in trade volume. Countries strongly oppose the U.S. tariff policy and plan retaliatory measures. Analysts point out that these tariffs will have a significant impact on consumer spending and may drag down economic growth in the short term.

On the day following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of comprehensive new tariffs, global stock markets saw a significant decline, with predictions that this will drive up prices and affect both U.S. and international economic growth. The S&P 500 index plummeted by 4.8%, marking the worst day since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. On that morning, financial markets showed a downward trend from Asia to Europe. Major consumer brands like Nike, Apple, and Target saw their stock prices drop by over 9%. Trump stated in a White House announcement that the U.S. economy will continue to prosper and insisted on imposing at least a 10% tariff on imports, claiming that this move will increase federal revenue and promote the return of domestic manufacturing.

This Republican president raised tariffs on products from dozens of countries, including major trading partners such as China and the European Union. China and the EU will face tariffs as high as 54% and 20%, respectively, with both sides stating they will retaliate. The French president has called for European companies to suspend investments in the U.S. Tariffs are taxes imposed on imported goods, and the plans announced by Trump on Wednesday represent one of the highest rates seen in a century.

The World Trade Organization expressed "deep concern" and projected that this year's trade volume will shrink by 1%. Market traders are worried that these tariffs could trigger inflation and hinder economic growth. On Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.7%, Australia's ASX 200 index dropped by 1.6%, and the Korean Composite Stock Price Index remained flat or slightly declined. During the Qingming Festival, stock markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were closed. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index dropped 4.8%, with a market value loss of about $2 trillion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite indices fell by approximately 4% and 6%, respectively. Concerns over a trade war have prompted continuous sell-offs in U.S. stocks since mid-February. The UK's FTSE 100 index declined by 1.5%, while other European markets also fell in line with trends in Japan and Hong Kong. On the trading day following the announcement (April 3), Hong Kong's Hang Seng index opened down 560 points and closed with a decline of 1.52%; China's Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 1% at market open but ultimately closed down 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 1.4%.

On Thursday, Trump's newly signed executive order at the White House further amplified risks, as he aims to reverse the U.S.-led global free trade order. Trump stated that progress is going very well, likening this move to performing surgery on a patient. He emphasized that markets and nations will experience prosperity. However, there were contradictions between the White House and Trump’s statements; the former indicated that the new tariffs were not a negotiating tactic, while the latter hinted at the possibility of moderate concessions to reach an agreement. The Prime Minister of Canada subsequently stated that Canada would impose a retaliatory tariff of 25% on U.S. imported cars. Last month, Trump had already imposed related tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but no new tariff measures were announced recently for these two North American trading partners.

Companies are facing significant choices: to absorb the cost of tariffs to maintain relationships with partners or to pass the costs onto consumers, risking a decline in sales. According to some estimates, this could have a significant impact on the economy since U.S. consumer spending accounts for about 10% to 15% of the global economy. Despite the stock market decline, gold as a safe-haven asset reached a historical high of $3,167.57 per ounce on Thursday before retreating, while the U.S. dollar weakened against multiple currencies. Asset management analysts noted that these tariffs could lead to a near 1% decline in economic growth in Europe, and if the EU undertakes further retaliation, the impact would be even more profound.

The Chief Global Strategist at Signum warned that if the U.S. fails to make other changes, such as the substantial tax cuts promised by Trump, the economy is likely to enter a recession. She emphasized that Trump’s goal of revitalizing the manufacturing sector may take years to achieve and that high import tariffs in the short term will immediately weigh down the economy, providing almost no benefits.

On Thursday, Stellantis, the manufacturer of Jeep, Fiat, and other brands, announced that in response to Trump’s 25% tariff on imported cars, its factories in Mexico and Canada would temporarily cease production, affecting 900 employees at five U.S. plants that supply these factories. In the stock market, Nike was one of the companies most severely impacted in the S&P index, as most of its athletic wear is produced in Asia, with its stock price dropping by 14%. Similarly, Apple, which also relies on China and Taiwan, saw its stock price decline by 9%, while other retailers like Target also experienced about a 10% drop. Motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson has been affected by retaliatory tariffs from the EU since the beginning of Trump’s term, with its stock price falling by 10%. In Europe, Adidas saw its stock price drop by over 10%, while competitor Puma also fell by over 9%. Luxury brand Pandora’s stock price decreased by more than 10%, and LVMH experienced a decline of over 3% under the impact of EU and Swiss tariffs.

A market analyst pointed out that retailers are currently feeling the pressure because tariffs have impacted unexpected countries, and further market turmoil may arise in the future.