讀後心得

Trump's political stance has undergone significant changes over the decades, but since the 1980s, he has consistently viewed tariffs as an effective means to promote the U.S. economy. On April 2, 2023, Trump announced the implementation of a "reciprocal tariff" policy at the White House, imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on all trading partners, including 34% on China and 32% on Taiwan. It is estimated that this policy will have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, potentially leading to a recession. Trump stated that these tariffs would be used to reduce the national debt and lower taxes. He emphasized that the reciprocal tariff policy is a step to protect U.S. industries and promote reindustrialization, sparking strong opposition from Taiwan and other countries.

Trump's political stance has undergone significant changes throughout his decades of public life. However, he has consistently believed since the 1980s that tariffs are an effective means of boosting the American economy.

On April 2 at 4 PM Eastern Time, Trump announced a massive "reciprocal tariff" policy in the White House Rose Garden—levying tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on all trade partners. Former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Kenneth Rogoff, stated that Trump's actions seemed to drop a nuclear bomb on the global trade system. Considering that the tax rates on trade partners are not only the same, Trump showcased a large chart to illustrate this, with more charts displayed on-site detailing the rates by country.

According to a list released by the White House, the tax rates imposed by the United States on Asian countries are generally higher, with the rate for China set at 34%; the rates for Southeast Asian countries are also burdensome, with Indonesia at 32%, Thailand at 36%, Vietnam at 46%, Laos at 48%, and Cambodia reaching as high as 49%; while the rates for Japan, South Korea, and India are lighter at 24%, 25%, and 26% respectively. Notably, Taiwan's rate is 32%. In Europe, the rate for the EU is 20%, while it's 31% for Switzerland, and 10% each for the United Kingdom and Brazil; most African countries also have a rate of 10%. Additionally, the United States will impose a 10% tariff on goods from Heard Island and McDonald Islands, which is an uninhabited Australian territory.

These tariffs are known as "reciprocal tariffs," based on the rate of taxation imposed by the other country on U.S. goods. This measure means that if a country imposes high tariffs on U.S. exports, the U.S. will also impose equal tariffs on that country’s goods exported to the U.S. Rogoff predicts that such tariff measures will have a "stunning impact" on U.S. imports, with the likelihood of a U.S. economic recession rising to 50%.

Moreover, the head of the research department at Fitch Ratings pointed out that under Trump, the effective import tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to soar from 2.5% in 2024 to 22%, a level last seen in 1910. If this rate continues, it could push many countries into recession.

Regarding the tariffs on China, the increased rate is not at the highest tier, as the Trump administration calculated that China’s average tariff on U.S. goods has reached 67%. Therefore, the 34% reciprocal tariff imposed on China will be added to the existing 20% rate, expected to bring the total tariff on China to 54%, effective April 9.

Tariffs have become a hot topic, but Trump emphasized in his speech that "non-tariff barriers" are one of the reasons for the high tariffs imposed on China. U.S. businesses have long complained that "non-tariff barriers" make it difficult for them to operate in China, including ownership restrictions and insufficient protection of intellectual property, preventing U.S. companies from stopping Chinese firms from copying their products.

Analysts on Wall Street believe that the impacts of this series of tariff measures will surpass the worst expectations in the financial sector, particularly the increased rates on China and Taiwan will have profound effects. Taiwan deemed this "very unreasonable," emphasizing that this policy does not reflect the practical situation of U.S.-Taiwan economic and trade relations, and questioned the scientific basis of its calculations.

According to Bloomberg models, if these tariffs go into effect, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. are expected to decrease by approximately 63%, equivalent to a GDP contraction of 3.8%. The head of Taiwan's Executive Yuan has instructed the trade negotiation office to raise this issue with the U.S.

Additionally, two major U.S. tech companies, Apple and Nvidia, may be affected by the new tariffs. Apple's iPhone production is located in China, whereas Nvidia's chip manufacturing relies on Taiwan. However, Apple has indicated plans to expand its operations in the U.S., which may increase its chances of obtaining tariff exemptions, as Trump had previously exempted iPhone import taxes during his first term.

Statistics show that 44.2% of the logic chips imported by the U.S. come from Taiwan, while 24.4% of memory chips also come from Taiwan, and TSMC's major clients are all U.S. companies.

One order signed by Trump, effective May 2, will end the tax-free provisions for small packages from mainland China and Hong Kong, which will directly hit cross-border e-commerce platforms that rely on Hong Kong logistics. Trump stated that this action is aimed at controlling the influx of fentanyl and accused Chinese chemical companies of being the main suppliers of raw materials for Mexican drug trafficking groups.

For countries facing high tariffs such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Bangladesh, these nations had benefited during the trade war in Trump's first term. Their market share in the U.S. expanded significantly, closely related to the high tariffs between the U.S. and China.

Trump also mentioned imposing a 20% tariff on the EU, expressing dissatisfaction with the EU, stating that America's friends are often worse than enemies in many respects.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition and plans to take retaliatory measures to protect its own interests. The statement emphasized that the U.S. raising tariffs disregards the results of years of multilateral trade negotiations and harms the legitimate rights and interests of all parties.

Relevant Chinese departments have been instructed to suspend the filing and approval for companies intending to invest in the U.S., while the U.S. Treasury Secretary has called on other countries not to retaliate and warned of the risks of further escalation.

In his speech, Trump insisted that American consumers would not bear the extra costs, and the tariff revenue would be used to reduce taxes and pay off debt, reflecting his hope to encourage companies to produce domestically through universal taxation. This has garnered support from some voters, including a truck driver who believes that tariffs are a good solution for America's current difficulties and feels optimistic about the future changes.

Trump reiterated that these reciprocal tariffs would lead to the "rebirth of American industry," declaring the day as "Liberation Day." However, experts warn that if the trade war continues, it could lead to an economic recession in the United States.