讀後心得

President Trump announced high tariffs in an attempt to protect American industries and jobs while challenging the globalized order, with the intention of gradually withdrawing from the international trade system. These protectionist policies may take decades to rebuild free trade. Trump believes that high tariffs will help restore economic strength, as globalization has failed to deliver the expected benefits to the U.S. and has instead facilitated China's rise. However, this strategy contradicts free trade theory and may lead to a restructuring of supply chains, while other countries could form new economic alliances. Experts indicate that once tariffs are implemented, they will continue to affect trade, and if Trump's goal is to increase revenue, this will make the policy more enduring, further adding to global economic uncertainty.

The U.S. president announced high tariffs in an attempt to build a protective wall to stop American industries and job opportunities from flowing overseas. Two British media outlets interpreted this tariff policy as a challenge to the existing globalization order, suggesting that the U.S. seems to be gradually stepping back from the international trade system it once built. Historically, protectionist policies tend to last for many years, and it may take decades to rebuild the free trade system in the future.

According to reports, the president repeatedly mentioned 1913, because that year the U.S. imposed a federal income tax while lowering tariffs. Prior to this, tariffs had been a major source of government revenue since the founding of the United States. The current administration believes that high tariffs once contributed to America's rise, and the same strategy should now be revived to rebuild economic strength. The vice president pointed out that globalization is seen as a failure because wealthy countries did not lift the value chain as expected, thereby allowing emerging countries like China to rise rapidly. As a result, the U.S. decided to break away from this "unequal" model of global division of labor, striving to bring manufacturing back to its own soil.

However, the president's economic logic is clearly at odds with free trade theory. The "comparative advantage" theory proposed by 19th-century British economists argues that countries should focus on the industries they excel at and enhance overall efficiency through free trade. The U.S. unilaterally overturned the consensus on international division of labor with a simple formula, severely damaging supply chain strategies and prompting other countries to form new economic alliances in an effort to break free from the unpredictable U.S.

The reports mentioned that once the tariff policy is implemented, it will have strong "stickiness." For example, a tariff law in 1930 caused U.S. trade volume to shrink by 67%, and it was considered one of the factors exacerbating the Great Depression, yet it took many years to be abolished. Some scholars pointed out that if the policy is similar to the 1971 currency manipulation aimed at Germany and Japan for diplomatic concessions, there may still be room for adjustment; however, if the president's goal is to increase government revenue, akin to the 19th-century reliance on tariffs, then this policy is bound to be enduring. There are also views suggesting that this could be part of the president's intention to weaken the dollar and promote interest rate cuts, as the U.S. gradually withdraws from the globally dominated trade system, bringing uncertainty to the world economy.