讀後心得

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) plummeted nearly 14% due to Trump's tariff policies, predicting that Taiwan's stock market could be affected by nearly a thousand points. National Chengchi University professor Yin Naiping pointed out that criticisms from the United States regarding Taiwan's chip industry may make it difficult for TSMC's stock price to stabilize in the short term. TSMC plans to reinvest $100 billion to meet U.S. demands, but U.S. hostility has not diminished. Experts suggest that investors should refrain from bottom fishing in the near term and predict that there may be an opportunity for the stock price to rebound by the time of the earnings conference. Additionally, they emphasize the need to monitor the financing maintenance ratio of margin trading to prevent severe market fluctuations.

Illustration of TSMC. Trump's tariff policy has led to a severe drop in global stock markets, with TSMC's American Depository Receipts (ADR) plummeting nearly 14% over the two trading days of the Qingming holiday. Analysts indicate that based on the current decline of TSMC's ADR, it is expected that TSMC's stock price will not only fall to the 80s on the 7th but could also impact the Taiwan stock market by nearly a thousand points.

A professor from National Chengchi University’s Department of Finance pointed out that U.S. President Trump has previously criticized Taiwan for "stealing chip business," and his current Secretary of Commerce has also publicly accused Taiwan of "taking away America's chip industry." If such rhetoric continues to escalate, Taiwan may face significant trouble, and TSMC's stock price will struggle to stop its decline in the short term.

The professor further analyzed that although TSMC has announced an additional $100 billion investment in the United States to meet American manufacturing needs, unfriendly remarks from U.S. officials have not ceased. Trump has repeatedly attacked Taiwan for taking away America's chip business, which subsequently led to TSMC's investment in the U.S. being raised to hundreds of billions of dollars. TSMC not only has to endure pressure, but government officials are also participating in the opposition, suggesting that the United States’ suppression of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry continues. According to Trump's policies, bringing chips back to the U.S. is Taiwan's responsibility, and if progress is not satisfactory, it could trigger troubles for TSMC and Taiwan.

The Taiwan stock market and TSMC face post-holiday pressure for correction, and financial experts state that if TSMC's stock price hits the daily limit down, it would reach NT$848. Using the example from August 5 of last year when TSMC hit the limit down at NT$813, he noted that if the Taiwan stock market falls by 8% similar to that day’s performance, the index could drop to 19,594 points, falling below last year's low of 19,783 points on August 5.

Another expert, using fundamental analysis, estimates that TSMC's earnings per share this year will be about NT$60, making a conservative price-earnings ratio of 15 times, which means a stock price of NT$900 is reasonable. However, due to the impact of Trump's tariff war, no country is exempt, and with the financial situation in disarray, investors are advised not to hold hopes of bottom-fishing or averaging down this week. It is expected that during the investor conference on April 17, TSMC will release positive news and a favorable outlook for the second quarter, and at that time, the stock price may have the opportunity to stabilize and rebound.

In addition to monitoring TSMC’s stock price, experts also warn to closely watch the overall credit trading financing maintenance rate. If there is a gap down in the index or individual stocks hit the limit down, the maintenance rate could drop from over 150% on April 2 to 140%. Should selling pressure continue and remain unabsorbed, the maintenance rate could further dip to 130%, facing pressure from credit institutions for collateral recalls. The most concerning situation would be the occurrence of a "kill more" scenario and the snowball effect, which could pose a risk of forced liquidation in the stock market.