讀後心得

U.S. stocks have fallen sharply for two consecutive days, dropping more than 10%, which may lead to a significant decline of over a thousand points when the Taiwan stock market opens. This is due to U.S. President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on multiple countries and China's countermeasures, raising market concerns about the outbreak of a trade war, causing global stock markets to experience turbulence. TSMC's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) plummeted by 10%, which may trigger further declines in the broader market. Analysts suggest adopting a conservative approach in the short term and waiting until panic subsides before entering the market. Investment risks should be carefully assessed, and individuals are responsible for their investment outcomes.

The US stock market has fallen significantly for two consecutive days, and the Taiwan stock market is expected to face a drop of a thousand points at the opening today. The global market has rapidly changed during the Qingming holiday period, with US stock indices dropping more than 10%, and the fear index has risen to the high point of the pandemic period, leaving investors nervous and waiting. As the Taiwan stock market reopens after the holiday, there are concerns that it will experience a catching-up decline, repeating the historical massive crash.

Influenced by the US President's tariff policy, the market feels uneasy about a full-blown trade war, compounded by China's announcement of retaliatory measures, leading to a global stock market crash. Major US stock indices were not spared, with the Dow Jones falling 8.8%, S&P 500 approaching a 10% drop, and Nasdaq also falling 10%, while the Philadelphia semiconductor sector plummeted by 16%. Large technology companies like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple all showed declines of over 7%.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), known as the "fear index", briefly exceeded 45, indicating heightened market panic. The Singapore FTSE futures also dropped significantly by about 10% during the holiday, suggesting that the Taiwan stock market could open with a decline of more than a thousand points today.

TSMC's ADR has also sharply declined, dropping over 10% in recent days. If the drop in ADR is converted to the cash price, TSMC is bound to experience a severe catching-up decline at today’s opening. If it opens at the limit-down price, it could cause the overall index to drop nearly 800 points. In addition, US stock futures are still facing sharp declines at the opening, indicating no signs of warming up.

Foreign investors have maintained a high risk-averse stance towards the Taiwan stock market since the beginning of the year, with net short positions remaining at 24,000 contracts. The three major institutions sold a total of 3.08 billion last Friday, and foreign capital has almost continuously sold the Taiwan stock market for nearly a month, only adding positions for two days in the short term, indicating that short-term chips have turned bearish.

According to data, the latest credit trading shows a collateral maintenance ratio of 157.92%, with a financing balance of 298.8 billion yuan. Experts point out that if the overall index opens down by a thousand points, these financing long positions will face the risk of margin calls, and selling pressure in the early session may further exacerbate the market's decline.

TSMC opened lower, and weighted stocks such as electronic weighted shares, semiconductors, and high-priced stocks may be the first to be affected; meanwhile, funds may temporarily flow into low-volatility financial and construction stocks to lessen the impact of tariff policies, leading to a conservative approach in short-term capital and main operations.

Due to the drastic fluctuations in the global market caused by tariff policies, the Taiwan stock market will inevitably bear the pressure of the US stock market's two-day drop at the opening, and a lower opening has become a foregone conclusion. Whether the market can see a strong buying rebound will be the focus of observation. Analysts recommend caution in the short term, controlling the proportion of holdings, and seeking entry opportunities after the panic fades, with particular attention to semiconductor groups and TSMC's movements, as these will be key indicators of whether the Taiwan stock market can stabilize.

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