讀後心得

Trump has been in office for more than two months, and his foreign policy has drawn widespread attention, particularly raising "pro-American skepticism" regarding Taiwan. Although the newly appointed Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense value Taiwan-U.S. relations, Trump has hardly mentioned Taiwan, and his intentions regarding Taiwan policy remain unclear. The focus of Taiwan-U.S. relations lies in four major areas: defense, semiconductors, technological cooperation, and energy. In terms of defense, the Democratic Progressive Party government is working hard to increase the defense budget; if Trump requests an increase to 5% of GDP, it could impose a burden on Taiwan's development. U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may be delayed, as its allies need to enhance their own defense spending, potentially crowding out Taiwan's procurement schedule for American weapons. In the semiconductor industry, many Taiwanese believe that rising costs could impact economic development and lead to talent outflow. Regarding technological cooperation, there is a foundation for collaboration between Taiwan and the U.S., but care must be taken, as the U.S. may prevent cooperation in the mid-level market between the two sides of the Strait, which could affect Taiwan's options. In energy policy, the Democratic Progressive Party government's plans seem to face shortages, while the U.S. is promoting the sale of energy products, which may deepen Taiwan's reliance on the United States and increase military tensions. Overall, whether the Democratic Progressive Party government can secure benefits and space for Taiwan remains to be observed.

Since taking office, U.S. President Trump has sparked widespread attention and surprise with his foreign policy in just over two months, further intensifying the "pro-America skepticism" within Taiwanese society. Although the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense appointed by Trump have placed importance on U.S.-Taiwan relations, Trump has hardly mentioned these relations in recent years, and his intentions regarding Taiwan appear vague. Besides the recent tariff disputes, key observations on U.S.-Taiwan relations can primarily focus on four major areas: defense, semiconductors, technology cooperation, and energy.

• In terms of defense, the DPP government is working to increase the defense budget from around 2.45% to 3% (approximately NT$790 billion), which accounts for 25% of the central government's total budget. If the Trump administration demands an increase of the defense budget to 5% of GDP (about NT$1.3 trillion), it would reach a near-war level, which may not bode well for Taiwan's overall development. Additionally, the timeline for U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may be affected, as Trump's emphasis on allies needing to increase their defense spending amidst the changes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict might impact Taiwan's timeline for acquiring U.S. weapons.

• In the semiconductor industry, many Taiwanese people view it as a resource akin to a "silicon shield," which has gradually transformed into a "silicon card." Before Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs," this card had already been played in favor of the U.S. The future development of TSMC and its upstream and downstream supply chain companies will have an impact on Taiwan's economy, especially in terms of talent outflow and the diminishing recognition of Taiwan's importance among American politicians.

• In terms of technology cooperation, the U.S. and Taiwan have established a certain foundation for cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, sensing chips, big data, and other high-tech fields. Considering the U.S. wishes to avoid Chinese technology and components in cooperation, this will lead to Taiwanese companies and talents becoming more deeply integrated into the U.S.-led high-end market. However, whether the U.S. will further restrict Taiwan's cooperation with China in the mid-tier market is worth noting.

• In the energy sector, there are allocation issues within the DPP government's energy policy, which may lead to short-term energy shortages, affecting people's livelihoods and national security. The U.S. has suggested that Taiwan consider opening up nuclear energy, as well as procuring U.S. nuclear energy, petrochemical products, and grid equipment. If this occurs, it will deepen Taiwan's reliance on the U.S. and increase the number of transport ships from the U.S. to Taiwan, potentially resulting in minor tensions between the U.S. and China near Taiwan.

Overall, whether the DPP government can objectively assess the current situation and strive for sufficient development space and interests for Taiwan remains to be closely observed.