讀後心得

The government's stock market stabilization policy has a short-term effect, and the long-term trend of the Taiwan stock market is influenced by external factors such as the shift in Trump's policies, industrial fundamentals, international capital flows, and market confidence. Recently, Trump's imposition of a 32% tariff on Taiwan has caused a significant impact on Taiwan's economy and stock market. Investors should adopt a strategy of "eliminating the weak and keeping the strong, pursuing good fortune and avoiding misfortune," focusing on industries with strong fundamentals that are less affected. Suggested potential investment directions include Taiwanese companies with low export exposure to the U.S., firms that subcontract for non-U.S. products, Chinese concept stocks, domestic demand stocks, military-industrial stocks, and defensive stocks. At the same time, it is essential to closely monitor potential tariff exemption situations and flexibly adjust the stockholding structure to respond to future market changes.

The government's stock market stabilization measures can only provide support in the short term; the long-term trend of the Taiwan stock market remains influenced by external factors such as changes in Trump’s policies, industry fundamentals, international capital flows, and the recovery of market confidence.

Recently, U.S. President Trump announced a 32% corresponding tariff on Taiwan, which is part of his overall tariff policy and has caused a significant impact on Taiwan's economy and stock market. In light of this situation, how should investors respond? Experts suggest adopting an investment strategy of "eliminating the weak and retaining the strong, and pursuing the auspicious while avoiding the perilous," and they propose five potential investment directions.

The Taiwan stock market faces the impact of international stock markets. Trump's tariff policy not only targets Taiwan, but also imposes a 10% basic tariff on 160 countries globally and levies higher tariffs on countries with trade deficits, such as Taiwan, which has a trade deficit with the U.S. reaching $73.9 billion in 2024, resulting in a 32% tariff. Although the Taiwan stock market did not immediately react due to the Qingming Festival holiday, global stock markets have recently fallen sharply due to tariff news, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining by more than 5%, major European indices dropping by 4%, and Asian markets like the Nikkei and Korea's KOSPI also experiencing significant declines. It is expected that on April 7, 2025, the Taiwan stock market will struggle to avoid the impact of international stock markets and open lower.

To mitigate the impact, regulatory authorities hurriedly introduced several market rescue measures on the evening of April 6, including relaxing the margin requirements for financing, adjusting the quantity of short-selling orders during daily trading, and changing the commission rate for short-selling margin, to be implemented for five days starting from April 7. This move aims to suppress short-term selling pressure, alleviate bearish sentiment, and stabilize market confidence. However, historical data analysis shows that while these policies may have a certain effect in the short term, the long-term trend still depends on external factors such as changes in Trump’s policies, industry fundamentals, international capital flows, and the recovery of market confidence. Therefore, investors must carefully evaluate the subsequent developments.

Under Trump’s tariff storm, experts point out that if investors in the Taiwan stock market do not wish to exit the market completely, they might consider reducing their holdings, adopting a strategy of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong, and focusing on industries and stocks with strong fundamentals, those that are less impacted by tariffs, or that might benefit. Here are five potential investment directions:

• Taiwanese companies that export a low proportion to the U.S. and compete with non-U.S. firms. The primary market for Taiwan's contact lens industry is concentrated in Japan, China, and Europe, and it is less affected by U.S. tariffs, which may make it a beneficiary.
• Taiwanese companies that manufacture products for non-U.S. firms. Some Taiwanese companies that manufacture brands like Adidas and Puma may benefit from increased competitiveness in non-U.S. markets.
• Chinese concept stocks, domestic demand stocks, and biotech stocks. These stocks do not rely on the U.S. market, are less affected, and show defensive characteristics during economic recovery phases.
• Defense stocks. With the increase in defense spending, defense stocks are expected to benefit from Taiwan's increased military purchases from the U.S.
• Defensive stocks and growth stocks. Certain defensive stocks may show resilience during significant market declines, and some growth stocks may rise against the trend.

According to relevant tariff regulations, if the proportion of U.S. components in imported products exceeds 20%, the products may qualify for tariff exemptions. This clause, if applied, could have profound effects on high-end electronic products, allowing U.S. tech companies to avoid major adjustments to their supply chains, which would favor a rebound in tech stocks in the short term and alleviate pressure on Taiwanese tech stocks. However, the Trump administration reserves the right to make final interpretations, and policies could be adjusted at any time, so investors need to closely monitor subsequent developments.

Trump's imposition of a 32% tariff on Taiwan undoubtedly poses significant challenges, but it also hides opportunities. In an unfavorable environment, investors should seek targets that are less affected or that benefit, such as Taiwanese companies with low exports to the U.S., those that manufacture for non-U.S. companies, domestic demand and biotech stocks, defense stocks, and defensive stocks. At the same time, it is important to closely watch developments related to potential tariff exemptions to seize the opportunities for a rebound in tech stocks. Flexibly adjusting the holding structure and adopting a strategy of eliminating the weak and retaining the strong will be key for investors to hedge against risks.