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In March, employment in the United States grew more than expected, with non-farm employment increasing by 228,000 people, and the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2%. The labor market remains strong, but in the face of recession risks and inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve may need to consider cutting interest rates. The healthcare, transportation, and leisure and hospitality sectors were the main drivers of job growth, retail employment rebounded, while non-farm employment in the federal government saw its first consecutive decline since 2022.

According to foreign media reports, the latest released data shows that the employment growth in the United States in March exceeded expectations, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating that the labor market remains healthy before widespread tariffs impact the global economy. According to the data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday, non-farm employment increased by 228,000 in March, surpassing the median forecast of 140,000 by economic experts. At the same time, data from the previous two months was also revised downwards. The unemployment rate in March slightly rose to 4.2%, the labor participation rate increased, and wage growth remained stable.

Traders currently estimate that there is about a 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting and have already fully considered a scenario of four rate cuts before the end of the year. This data report indicates that the labor market remains strong before the U.S. President fully imposes reciprocal tariffs. However, many economic experts on Wall Street also state that the U.S. faces the risk of economic recession this year, while predicting that the unemployment rate and inflation rate will rise.

These expectations put greater challenges on the Federal Reserve's decision-making, as policymakers may need to respond to inflation by either lowering interest rates or maintaining high borrowing costs. Data shows that healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality sectors are the standout areas in non-farm employment growth, while retail employment shows signs of recovery. With the U.S. government implementing a plan to reduce federal employees, non-farm employment in the federal government has experienced consecutive declines for the first time since 2022. At the same time, employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are also counted, considered as part of the employed workforce.