讀後心得

In 2025, the real estate market enters a cooling period. Although the total project value this year reached 800 billion NTD, buyer interest has significantly decreased. Experts point out that the pace of sales for pre-sold and existing homes has noticeably slowed, putting developers under inventory pressure. The transaction volume of pre-sold homes across Taiwan plummeted from 16,000 units in June 2023 to 5,000 units in December, indicating a market downturn. In major projects across northern, central, and southern Taiwan, while existing home prices remain high, actual sales are slow. Developers are often resorting to promotions such as discounts on lower floors or offering free renovations. However, directly lowering prices may impact buyer confidence and brand image. Some large developers, due to sufficient capital, can withstand the downturn, but small and medium-sized developers face greater financial pressure and may need to offer discounts to survive. Market oversupply and the exit of investors have put some areas at risk of upgrades, while high-priced properties are affected by a decrease in loan-to-value ratios and high interest rates, leading to increased buyer hesitation. Developers have changed their strategies by reducing unit sizes, offering lighter renovations, and releasing properties in batches to boost sales rates. Homebuyers should pay special attention to actual transaction registration and transaction speed to seize potential bargaining opportunities.

The housing market enters a cooling period in 2025. Although this year's 329 launch proposals exceeded 800 billion NTD, setting a historic second-high record, market purchasing power has significantly declined. Experts point out that when the absorption rate of pre-sales and existing homes noticeably slows down, the inventory pressure faced by builders has become unavoidable. According to the latest market data and expert observations, we'll explore the hidden concerns and response strategies behind this wave of "launching frenzy," from pre-sales and existing homes to regional structures.

Sudden Drop in Pre-sale Transactions: Clear Signal of a Cooling Housing Market

According to expert analysis, pre-sales are a leading indicator for observing the housing market's health. In June 2023, the transaction volume of pre-sale houses across Taiwan had surged to over 16,000 cases, but by December of the same year, it had fallen below 5,000 cases, indicating that the housing market has shifted from hot to cold. "The market has already transitioned from hot to cold; many builders have a large number of projects, but actual transactions are surprisingly slow."

Pressure on Existing Homes: Builders Face Dilemma of "Price Reductions" or "Price Holding"

Observing key building projects in northern, central, and southern Taiwan, many nearly completed existing homes remain at high prices, but actual sales are sluggish. Builders are increasingly adopting methods like discounts on lower floors and offering decoration incentives as "indirect concessions" to accelerate sales. However, the primary reason builders refrain from directly reducing prices is that price cuts could undermine buyer confidence and brand image; they might opt to "temporarily not sell," waiting for a better opportunity; and large builders have sufficient capital to withstand short-term downturns. However, if inventory cannot be sold, builders will still face risks, including extended sales periods, slowing cash flow, and increased pressure from bank loans and capital management. In contrast, small and medium-sized builders, due to tight finances, may concede earlier to survive.

Which Areas Have the Highest Risks? Three Major Phenomena Provide Early Warnings

• Simultaneous Surge of New and Second-hand Listings: In popular areas like Taichung's coastline and Kaohsiung's Nanzih, overproduction of launches following the cooling of demand has emerged, leading to sales pressure.
• Exit of Investors, Difficulty in Resale: In places like Chiayi and Miaoli, prices were heated by the TSMC effect, but due to loan constraints and negative news, reselling has become difficult.
• High-Price Market is the Most Affected: The loan-to-value ratio has dropped to 28.62%, and interest rates have reached 2.76%, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among high-end housing buyers.

Housing Market Cools, but Is It Easier to Negotiate?

As the tug-of-war between project launches and inventory digestion continues, builders are quietly adjusting their strategies: reducing unit sizes to lower total prices and increase transaction rates; offering light renovations and free gifts to enhance the attractiveness for self-occupied buyers; and staggered releases of units to avoid excessive market pressure from large quantities being released.

Factors Homebuyers Should Pay Attention To

Although the six major municipalities continue to have numerous projects being launched, the transaction speed has become a key indicator. It is recommended that homebuyers, when selecting properties, not only consider the popularity of advertisements and model homes but also pay attention to the number of real price registrations disclosed and the proportion of purchases made, as well as whether there are fluctuations in the number of visitors on-site, especially concerning promotional units. If sales progress is slow, there may be more room for negotiation in the future, or even the opportunity to receive additional incentives.