讀後心得

The housing market enters a period of cooling in 2025. Despite this year's total project approvals reaching a near-record high, market purchasing power has significantly declined, putting pressure on builders to reduce inventory. Experts point out that the transaction volume of pre-sold homes has plummeted, indicating that the market is gradually cooling down. Many existing homes, while maintaining high prices, are selling slowly; builders are accelerating inventory reduction through discount strategies rather than directly lowering prices. In the future, small and medium-sized builders may offer concessions earlier due to tight funding, while certain popular areas may experience sales pressure due to oversupply. For homebuyers, the current housing market may present better bargaining opportunities, and when choosing, they should observe the actual transaction situation.

The housing market in 2025 is gradually entering a cooling period. Although this year's total value of the 329 projects exceeds 800 billion yuan, setting a second-highest historical record, the market's buying momentum has significantly dwindled. Experts indicate that as the absorption rate of pre-sale and completed homes noticeably slows down, the inventory pressure faced by developers has become increasingly critical. This platform has compiled the latest market data and expert observations, covering aspects from pre-sale homes, completed homes to regional structures, allowing you to comprehensively understand the hidden concerns and response strategies of this wave of project launches.

The sudden drop in pre-sale home transactions is a clear signal of a cooling housing market. According to expert analysis, pre-sale homes serve as a leading indicator for observing the housing market's health. In June 2023, pre-sale home transactions across Taiwan once surged to over 16,000 units; however, by December of the same year, they fell below 5,000 units, indicating that the market has cooled. Many developers have launched numerous projects, but the transaction pace has been astonishingly slow.

Completed homes are facing even greater pressure, as developers are caught in a dilemma between "lowering prices" or "maintaining prices." Observing major projects in northern, central, and southern Taiwan reveals that while many nearly completed homes maintain high prices, sales are sluggish. Developers are often offering discounts on lower floors or providing decoration giveaways to effectively "indirectly lower prices" to accelerate sales. The reasons why developers do not lower prices directly include: that reducing prices may affect existing buyers' confidence and brand image, and they can also choose to temporarily withhold sales from the market, waiting for a better timing to launch. Large developers with sufficient capital can withstand short-term downturns, but if inventory cannot be sold, they will face the following risks: extended sales periods, reduced cash flow, and increased pressure from bank loans and financial management, while small and medium-sized developers may be the first to offer discounts for survival due to tight funds.

Which areas are at the highest risk? Three major phenomena have sounded early warnings:

• A simultaneous surge in new and second-hand houses: In popular areas like Taichung's coastal line and Kaohsiung's Nanzi, an oversupply of project launches has occurred due to the market fever cooling down, leading to sales pressure.
• Investors retreating, making resale difficult: For example, areas like Chiayi and Miaoli have seen an increase due to TSMC's effect, but due to loan policies and negative news, reselling has become challenging.
• The high total price market is the first to be impacted: The loan-to-value ratio has dropped to 28.62%, with interest rates reaching 2.76%, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among high-price home buyers.

As the housing market cools, it paradoxically increases the room for negotiation. Developers’ response strategies include launching small-sized, lightly decorated properties, and releasing them in batches. At this time, developers are also strategically adjusting between project launches and sales, reducing sizes to lower the total prices, enhancing appeal for owner-occupiers, and avoiding large-scale releasing pressure on the market.

When choosing a property, homebuyers should pay attention to: not only the popularity of advertisements and model homes but also observe the number of units revealed in the actual price registrations, purchase ratios, and whether there are any changes in the crowd at the viewing sites indicating discounts or releases. If sales progress is slow, there may be better bargaining opportunities in the future, and buyers might even receive additional bundled offers.