讀後心得

Trump implemented global equivalent tariffs, with Taiwan being charged 32%. Although there is an exemption for semiconductors, the Taiwanese stock market still faces a potential crash. Former semiconductor analyst Cheng Zhenghua pointed out that the tariff exemption rules can have different interpretations, which may affect TSMC's production progress in the U.S. An economic recession is nearly certain, and the outlook is not optimistic. Regarding the latest exemption rules, Cheng Zhenghua emphasized that only chips produced in the United States can be exempt from tariffs, which may force TSMC to accelerate its production increase in the U.S., otherwise the hope of reaching a deal with Trump soon may be difficult to realize.

Stock market illustration. The U.S. President promotes global equivalent tariffs, and Taiwan faces a 32% tariff challenge. Although the semiconductor industry has received exemptions, the Taiwanese stock market is also difficult to avoid a crash under these circumstances. The latest "Tariff Exemption Gold Medal" regulation attachment 9903.01.34 indicates that products with a U.S. component accounting for 20% may form a tariff humanitarian corridor. However, a former well-known foreign semiconductor analyst pointed out that there may be different interpretations of these exemption regulations, which will affect TSMC's production speed in the United States, and the risk of economic recession is becoming increasingly high, making the economic outlook for the second half of the year concerning.

He analyzed that Trump's tariff measures have sparked widespread attention, and an economic recession is almost inevitable. Referring to the frequent changes in policies during previous presidents' terms, the world hopes he can quickly reach an agreement to calm the situation. However, the current Trump is obviously different from before; perhaps he is just using "deals" as a facade and does not really want to negotiate, thus the economic situation for the second half of the year is indeed not optimistic.

Without discussing the details of the tariff policy, he specifically mentioned the U.S.'s latest tariff exemption regulation attachment 3 (9903.01.34): if the U.S. components account for more than 20% of the product's content value, that portion will not be taxed (while the non-U.S. manufactured part still needs to pay taxes); since the cost of chips in electronic products is usually far higher than 20%, and most chip manufacturers are U.S. companies, discussions have arisen about whether Apple phones and Nvidia GPUs will be tax-exempt because of this. However, he pointed out that, according to his understanding, this part should refer to "U.S. manufactured" rather than "manufactured by U.S. companies"; if it were that simple, Apple would achieve 100% U.S. components by importing iPhones through U.S. importers.

He added that if this interpretation is correct, then only "chips produced in the U.S." can receive exemptions. This will force major customers to demand TSMC to accelerate investment and mass production in the U.S. This is the real impact of the "chip tariffs," rather than imposing tariffs on chips manufactured overseas (which would be much more challenging to enforce). Instead, U.S.-produced chips could be exempt from taxation. In this situation, any expectations that Trump will quickly finalize an agreement to ease tariffs may yield no results. Establishing a semiconductor plant is not something that can be completed overnight; for this policy to be effective, it must be sustained over a long period, and we hope the situation will not indeed be that bad.

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