讀後心得

Dong Ruibin expressed that the reasonable average tariff for the United States should increase by 18.39%. Trump's tax policy has impacted global stock markets, raising concerns about whether Taiwan's efforts under the New Southbound Policy will be in vain. Dong Ruibin mentioned that Taiwanese companies are in close communication with regions like Vietnam and Cambodia, looking forward to the outcomes of local negotiations with the United States. He pointed out that most Southeast Asian countries rely on supply chains from countries like Taiwan and face challenges from heavy taxes imposed by the U.S., but he believes that the negotiation conditions for Vietnam and Thailand may be successful. He also analyzed Trump's method of calculating tariffs, arguing that the prices and demand elasticity of different countries should be taken into account, emphasizing that the current calculation method is overly simplified and may lead to unfair outcomes, potentially triggering a trade war.

Dong Ruibin expressed his views on the U.S. reciprocal tariffs, believing that the reasonable average tariff rate should increase by 18.39%. The reciprocal tariff storm proposed by Trump not only dealt a heavy blow to global stock markets but also made Taiwanese businesses and the financial sector anxious in promoting the new southbound policy of "non-Red supply chains." He pointed out that branches in Vietnam and Cambodia, among other Southeast Asian locations, have closely exchanged opinions with local Taiwanese businesses, and they are looking forward to the results of the communication between local governments and the U.S. government. Dong Ruibin lamented that Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Cambodia have been innocently affected by this trade war, as much of the local exports come from the supply chain transfers of Northeast Asian countries like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, resulting in a trade surplus with the U.S., yet facing heavy tariffs. He believes that Vietnam and Thailand have made generous negotiation proposals to the U.S., and the chances of success are quite high; it is still too early to conclude the future development of the new southbound policy.

As a macroeconomist, Dong Ruibin also elaborated on his viewpoint regarding "reciprocal tariffs." He mentioned that the reciprocal tariff calculation currently proposed by Trump is actually based on two factors: the average import price tariff rate of U.S. global trade and the price elasticity of import demand. Taking the machinery industry as an example, Germany and Japan, due to their competitiveness in the international market, will not be greatly affected by demand even if tariffs rise, which also gives them a higher tariff resistance. In comparison, Taiwan may not match these countries in terms of price and demand elasticity, so using the same standard for reciprocal tariff calculations by the U.S. is very unfavorable for Taiwan. If Trump calculates based on global average standards, he should consider the overall U.S. exports and imports to arrive at an average reciprocal tariff rate, rather than just the import and export data of a single country.

He cited data indicating that U.S. global trade exports are expected to be 2.0838 trillion USD in 2024, while imports are 3.2955 trillion USD. Under the trade balance, the average tariff rate on the world would increase by 36.77 percentage points, which could be adjusted according to the friendliness of each country towards the U.S., ideally reducing to zero, with 18.39% being a middle value. Dong Ruibin bluntly stated that the calculation method currently used by Trump’s team, which is based on the trade deficit of each country, overlooks many important details and simplifies the matter excessively. Because each country has a wide variety of products, even similar products such as automobiles, steel, or machinery have different market conditions and sales situations, thus this unified calculation method is not only unfair but also fails to achieve Trump's original goal. If multiple countries start tariff negotiations with Trump, thinking on this basis may help solve the problem; otherwise, the current formula could provoke retaliatory measures from U.S. trade opponents, further worsening the U.S. trade deficit, and potentially triggering a global tariff war.