讀後心得

Trump is once again implementing trade protectionism, imposing at least a 10% tariff on nearly all imported goods, aiming to prevent job losses. His policies particularly revert to the protectionist era from a century ago and have sparked a global trade war. These measures deviate from basic economic principles, and the negative perception of free trade in the U.S. has led to a policy focus on trade deficits. Although some jobs may return to the U.S., overall, the benefits of free trade for the U.S. economy are unevenly distributed across different regions, creating social tensions. The United States is shifting towards a new economic strategy, with the impacts on other countries gradually becoming evident.

The American President Trump has once again established a new trade wall, asserting that other countries will pay for it. This time, he has imposed a "reciprocal tariff" of at least 10% on almost all imported goods, aiming to halt the loss of jobs and employment opportunities overseas, rather than just preventing immigration. The background of this policy can be traced back to the era of protectionism a century ago, and today, U.S. tariff revenues have surpassed those of G7 and G20 countries, being similar to countries like Senegal, Mongolia, and Kyrgyzstan. This week's events have not only triggered a global trade war and stock market fluctuations but also represent a clear abandonment by the U.S., a global superpower, of the globalization process that it has long promoted and profited from. When announcing the tariff policies, the economic logic employed by Trump not only contradicts the basic principles of economics but also undermines the fundamental norms of diplomacy.

• When announcing the tariff policies, Trump repeatedly referred to the year 1913, the year when the U.S. first imposed a federal income tax while significantly lowering tariffs, marking a turning point.
• Since the founding of the United States, tariffs have been a primary source of government revenue, implemented with no reservations in the practice of protectionism, a strategy that can be traced back to the first Secretary of the Treasury, Hamilton.
• The current government's view is that high tariffs enhance America's economic standing and make federal income taxes unnecessary.

In the UK, the theories supporting globalization and free trade remain an important cornerstone of politics and economics, and most countries around the world still believe in the theory of comparative advantage, which is the core idea of globalization. However, the U.S. has seemingly never fully accepted this theory, and its resistant attitude has never vanished. The U.S. Trade Representative proposed an interesting formula this week, calculating the data presented by Trump, which reflects the logic behind American policy.

• Trump's logic of "reciprocal tariffs" is almost unrelated to the actual tariff rates published by various countries; the White House states that these figures take into account factors like bureaucracy and currency manipulation.
• These so-called reciprocal tariffs are based on the amount of the U.S. trade deficit; simply put, if a country exports more to the U.S. than it imports from the U.S., it is considered "cheating" and must be taxed to correct the imbalance.

The long-term goal of this policy is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit to zero; this simplified calculation targets not countries with clear trade restrictions but all countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. The wealth and economic conditions of these countries are irrelevant; as long as the data shows a surplus, they will become targets for pressure.

• The reasons for trade surpluses or deficits are very complex and should not be oversimplified to "zero." Different countries have natural differences in production capacity and resources, which is the basis for trade.
• In fact, even based on the same logic, the surplus the U.S. has in services trade is excluded from this calculation.

The "China shock" referred to by Trump has had a significant impact on American manufacturing, with research indicating that about one million manufacturing jobs were lost due to this from 2001 to 2011. Although the protectionist policies launched by Trump's current administration have limited overall economic impact, they have solidified the base of his supporters.

Within the White House, some automobile unions and oil and gas workers celebrated this deal, as they were promised that jobs would return to various parts of the U.S. While this plan may have substantial effects, the free trade narrative described by Trump clearly does not reflect reality. Although free trade has adverse effects on certain regions and industries, overall, the U.S. economy remains relatively strong globally.

In the face of such a protectionist sentiment, global consumers will have choices, and American blue-chip companies will face significant challenges. The trade war triggered by Trump's policies will have a considerable impact on their stock prices and is likely to affect the functioning of the global economy.

Ultimately, this trade war will unfold in the age of social media. As this series of protectionist measures continue, economic alliances between the U.S. and other countries may gradually form, seeking to break free from American control. As the trade war sweeps across the globe, America's economic and military advantages may provide some support; however, attempting to rewrite global trade rules with an absurd formula may provoke strong backlash from other countries, which could lead to significant harm to the U.S. itself.