讀後心得

Trump announced a list of countries subject to reciprocal tariffs on April 3, covering 185 countries worldwide, but surprisingly, Russia and Belarus were not included. The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that trade between the U.S. and Russia is minimal due to existing sanctions. However, data shows that although trade volume between the two countries has declined, essential imports such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals are still present. Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on Russia is seen as a political signal, indicating his desire to improve relations with Moscow. Experts point out that even if relations warm in the future, the likelihood of U.S.-Russia trade rebounding to previous levels is low, as sanctions and financial restrictions remain in place.

Trump announced on Thursday a list of countries and regions with reciprocal tariffs, covering a total of 185 countries worldwide. Surprisingly, a few countries were excluded, including Russia and Belarus, while Ukraine was not spared. The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury stated that due to existing sanctions, the U.S. has no trade relations with Russia anyway. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. and major European countries have imposed further sanctions on Russia. However, is this really the case? What does the U.S. import from Russia? According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the trade volume of goods between the U.S. and Russia has significantly decreased since the Russia-Ukraine war, dropping from about $36 billion in 2021 to around $3.5 billion in 2024. Therefore, the claim of "not having trade relations with Russia" is inaccurate. Although the quantities imported from Russia are minimal, they hold strategic significance, such as fertilizers and inorganic chemicals. Even though the current trade volume is far below pre-war levels, it does not fully explain why Trump did not include Russia in the tariff list.

For example, the U.S. imposes a 27% tariff on imported goods from Kazakhstan, with trade volume with the U.S. being roughly comparable to that with Russia, at about $3.4 billion, of which $2.3 billion is imported from the U.S. In comparison, Ukraine's trade volume is lower, at about $2.9 billion, and it is included in Trump's tariff list with a punitive tariff of 10%. Other sanctioned countries, including Venezuela, are also on the new tariff list, but countries like Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus are exempt. "This seems to be a symbolic gesture of leniency," pointed out experts.

The U.S. has not publicly disclosed bilateral trade figures with North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, but according to U.N. estimates, the trade volume between the U.S. and Belarus reaches several million dollars each year. For instance, in 2024, the U.S. will import about $21 million worth of goods from Belarus. Therefore, it can be inferred that the criteria for drafting this tariff list are not solely based on trade volume. Notably, even some virtually uninhabited islands are included in the list, areas that have almost no substantial trade relations with the U.S.

Another phenomenon is that Canada and Mexico were not included in the new tariff list, yet most goods imported from these two countries have already been subjected to a 25% tariff. Filippov believes that Trump's exclusion of Russia sends a clear political signal, indicating that improving relations with Moscow is a priority for him. The Russian side has also received this signal; a special envoy from Russia stated during a visit to Washington that the resumption of dialogue between the U.S. and Russia is a difficult process, with both sides prepared to establish cooperation in international and economic fields.

A political science professor suggested that Trump’s decision not to impose tariffs on Russia could be related to diplomatic engagements between the two countries. Levying tariffs during a visit seems untimely, and if needed in the future, it can still be imposed later. Experts pointed out that the lack of additional tariffs on Russia is entirely based on political considerations since the U.S. is still importing nuclear fuel, fertilizers, and platinum from Russia. Imposing high tariffs on these goods could lead to a rise in U.S. energy prices, which runs counter to Trump's policy objectives.

However, the current trade volume between the U.S. and Russia is still far less than that between Europe or China and Russia. Even if U.S.-Russia relations improve in the future, it would be difficult to return to previous levels, as financial, logistical, and sanctions restrictions still exist.