讀後心得

U.S. President Trump announced high tariffs aimed at preventing the outsourcing of American industries and job opportunities. Two major British media outlets interpret this move as a challenge to the globalized order, signaling that the U.S. will gradually withdraw from the international trade system it established, and that protectionism may persist for years, making it difficult to rebuild the free trade system. Trump referenced the history of raising federal income taxes while lowering tariffs in 1913, arguing that high tariffs once enabled America's rise and should be re-adopted. Vice President Pence stated that globalization has failed to move wealthy countries up the value chain as expected; instead, it has allowed emerging countries like China to rise, and the U.S. is determined to bring manufacturing back. However, Trump's policies contradict the theory of free trade and may severely damage supply chains, prompting alliances among other countries. Experts point out that once high tariff policies are implemented, they tend to last, similar to the Tariff Act of 1930, which caused U.S. trade to shrink by 67%. If Trump's goal is to increase revenue, the policy will be stickier and could also lead to a depreciation of the dollar, bringing uncertainty to the global economy.

The President of the United States has announced high tariffs, intending to create a new line of defense to prevent American industries and jobs from flowing overseas. Two major British media outlets interpret that this tariff is, in fact, a challenge to the existing global order, indicating that the U.S. will gradually withdraw from the international trade system it created. Historically, protectionist policies often last for years, and it may take decades to rebuild the free trade system in the future.

Some media have pointed out that the President has mentioned 1913 multiple times, as that year marked the introduction of the federal income tax while simultaneously lowering tariffs. Since the founding of the United States, tariffs have been a primary source of fiscal revenue for the government. The current administration believes that high tariffs once helped elevate the U.S. and should be revived to rebuild economic strength. The Vice President previously stated that globalization is viewed as a failure because wealthy nations have failed to elevate the value chain as expected, allowing emerging countries like China to rise rapidly. Thus, the U.S. has decided to disengage from this “unequal” global division of labor to promote the repatriation of manufacturing.

However, the economic logic of the President is clearly at odds with free trade theories. Economists of the 19th century proposed the theory of "comparative advantage," arguing that nations should focus on developing industries in which they excel and enhance efficiency through free trade. In contrast, the U.S. has unilaterally overturned the consensus on international division of labor with a simple equation, severely disrupting supply chain strategies and prompting other countries to form new economic alliances to address the unpredictable actions of the U.S.

Scholars have pointed out that once tariffs are implemented, they tend to have strong "stickiness." For example, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 caused U.S. trade volumes to shrink by 67%, and is considered one of the reasons for exacerbating the Great Depression, but it was only lifted many years later. The scholar believes that if the policy draws lessons from the 1971 approach to the exchange rates of Germany and Japan to secure diplomatic concessions, there might still be room for maneuver. However, if the President is concerned about increasing government revenue and relies on tariffs as a primary fiscal source like in the 19th century, the policy will become more enduring. Additionally, there is a perspective that the President’s intention may be to weaken the dollar and promote interest rate cuts, leading the U.S. to gradually withdraw from its previously dominant position in the global trade system, creating uncertainty for the world economy.