讀後心得

The employment data for March in the United States shows that job growth exceeded expectations, with an increase of 228,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.2%. This indicates that the labor market remains healthy, despite challenges posed by tariffs. Experts predict that as the risk of economic recession increases, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the May meeting. Currently, industries such as healthcare, transportation, and leisure and hospitality lead job growth, while the number of government employees has declined for the first time since 2022.

According to external reports, the latest data reveals that employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations in March, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating that the labor market remains robust before global trade is widely affected by tariffs. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday showed that non-farm employment increased by 228,000 in March, surpassing the median expectation of 140,000 from economic experts. Data from the previous two months were also revised downward. The unemployment rate in March slightly rose to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate increased and wage growth remained strong.

Traders still predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the May meeting, and the market has already fully priced in the possibility of four rate cuts by the end of the year. This data report shows that before the U.S. President imposes comprehensive tariffs, the labor market is showing strong performance. However, many Wall Street economists point out that the U.S. faces the risk of economic recession this year, including projections of rising unemployment and inflation rates. These expectations pose greater challenges for the Federal Reserve, as decision-makers may need to choose between lowering interest rates to support the economy or maintaining high borrowing costs to curb inflation.

• Healthcare, transportation, warehousing, and leisure and hospitality industries led the growth in non-farm employment.
• Employment in the retail sector showed a rebound.
• As the U.S. government advances its plan to reduce federal employees, non-farm employment numbers in the federal government have shown consecutive declines for the first time since 2022.
• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that employees on paid leave or receiving severance pay are also included.