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The missile strikes from Iran have already hit residential areas in Israel, raising serious concerns in the international community. Currently, military opposition between the two nations remains bilateral. However, as the international community, especially the United Nations, urges restraint from both sides, if these diplomatic calls are ignored and the conflict escalates further, it could have profound implications for regional stability and the global economy. The UK media outlet BBC has outlined several potential negative scenarios. Below is an analysis of these outcomes.

1. The United States May Get Involved in the War
Despite the U.S. government’s repeated denials of involvement in Israel’s military actions, Iran perceives the U.S. as implicitly allowing, or even supporting, these actions. Should tensions escalate, Iran might retaliate against U.S. military targets in the Middle East, including special forces bases in Iraq, U.S. facilities in the Persian Gulf, or diplomatic missions. Local militia groups supported by Iran, such as armed factions active in Iraq, may also begin their actions. The U.S. has already taken notice of these potential risks, progressively withdrawing some personnel from its positions and publicly warning Iran against attacking U.S. targets. However, if American civilians are attacked in Israel or elsewhere, President Trump might feel compelled to respond under pressure. If the U.S. officially enters the conflict, it would represent a significant escalation and could lead to prolonged instability in the Middle East.

2. Persian Gulf Countries at Risk of Attack
If Iran fails to effectively disrupt Israeli military capabilities, it may turn towards attacking soft targets in countries surrounding the Persian Gulf, particularly those with military cooperation with Israel or permitting U.S. bases. Historical events, such as the attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in 2019 and the UAE incident in 2022, illustrate Iran’s precedent of targeting regional infrastructure directly or through proxies. Even though Iran has seen some recent reconciliation with certain Gulf nations, U.S. military bases remain stationed in the area. Should Gulf nations be attacked again, they may request American support for defense, thereby indirectly prompting further U.S. involvement.

3. Acceleration of Nuclear Weapons Development if Iranian Facilities Remain Intact
If Israeli attacks do not completely neutralize Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially the deeply buried Fordow facility, Iran's nuclear research could accelerate. Reports indicate that Iran has amassed approximately 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, just a step away from producing nuclear weapons. Even if some nuclear scientists are killed in the attacks, Iran's knowledge and technological base will not disappear. Should Iran's new military leadership adopt a more hardline stance, this could further promote nuclear weapon development, resulting in a continuous cycle of military retaliation in the region. Israel has a brutal military strategy known as “mowing the grass,” which aims to conduct periodic strikes to weaken enemy forces.

4. Global Oil Prices May Surge
Geopolitical tensions have already driven international oil prices up; if Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz or bolster Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, global energy supplies could be significantly disrupted. Many countries are already grappling with inflation and cost-of-living crises, and rising oil prices would exacerbate these issues. Moreover, Russian President Putin might benefit from this situation, as he stands to gain substantial funds to support military actions in Ukraine.

5. Potential Collapse of the Iranian Regime
Israel’s military actions aim to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated his intention to assist the Iranian people in “liberating themselves from the evil and oppressive regime,” hinting at a deeper political goal of regime change. Should the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary regime fall, it may gain some support from neighboring nations, but also risks creating a power vacuum and internal chaos similar to past experiences in Iraq and Libya. This turmoil could not only destabilize Iran but also affect the security of surrounding regions.