讀後心得

The Ministry of Economic Affairs has announced the domestic consumption statistics for the first two months of this year, showing that the retail and food and beverage industries have reached new highs in revenue. However, due to the impact of the gas explosion at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung, the revenue of department stores in February decreased by 19.3% year-on-year, leading to domestic demand performance falling below expectations. The Ministry estimates that due to the opening of Nangang Department Store and White Day, retail and food and beverage industries can still maintain growth in the first quarter. Although the revenue of the retail industry in February was NT$355.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, the cumulative total for the first two months reached NT$801.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In the food and beverage sector, the revenue in February was NT$82.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%, but the cumulative total for the first two months also reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. Looking ahead to March, the Ministry of Economic Affairs predicts that the revenue of the retail and food and beverage industries is expected to grow.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs announced the domestic consumption statistics, showing that the retail and dining industries achieved record highs in revenue for the first two months of this year. However, affected by the gas explosion incident at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung, department store revenue in February decreased by 19.3% year-on-year, leading to a performance in domestic demand that fell short of expectations, resulting in a decline. The Ministry forecasts that with the opening of the Nangang Department Store and the arrival of White Day, the retail and dining sectors will still show growth in the first quarter.

The Deputy Director of the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs indicated that the performance of domestic demand in the first two months was below expectations, partly due to a higher base last year, and three main factors contributed to this: the widening gap between the number of people going abroad and those coming to Taiwan, with the number of outbound travelers in January reaching a record high of 1.61 million; additionally, the low temperatures and high rainfall in February affected foot traffic to stores; furthermore, the gas explosion at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung also impacted the department retail sector, consequently affecting the dining industry.

According to the Ministry's report, the revenue of the retail and dining sectors in February was affected by the high base from last year's spring festival occurring in February, resulting in a retail revenue of NT$355.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; while the cumulative retail revenue for the first two months reached NT$801.5 billion, setting a historical high for the same period, with an annual increase of 1.1%. In the category of combined commodity retail, which holds the largest market share, February's revenue was NT$112.2 billion, although it was the second highest for the same period, it still shifted to negative growth with a year-on-year decrease of 11%; however, the revenue for the first two months reached NT$261.7 billion, marking a new historical high for the same period, growing by 2.7%.

The Ministry analyzed that the workplace safety incident at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung in February caused department store revenue to drop to NT$31.2 billion, decreasing by 31.8% month-on-month and by 19.3% compared to last year; while the cumulative annual growth for the first two months of department store revenue was 2.1%. In supermarkets, due to the increase in store numbers and promotional activities, there was an annual growth of 4.4%; hypermarkets saw a good performance in the sales of traditional goods, growing by 0.5%; convenience stores benefited from travel during long holidays, baseball games, and increased demand for hot drinks due to low temperatures, growing by 3.7%. Additionally, due to an increase in working days compared to the same period last year, the retail revenue for vehicles and motorcycles in February reached NT$61.7 billion, an annual increase of 20.6%, while the first two months saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase.

The retail sector of textiles and apparel experienced a weakening momentum in domestic luxury sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.6% in February and a decline of 2.8% in the first two months. In the dining sector, the revenue in February amounted to NT$82.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; however, the revenue for the first two months reached NT$188.5 billion, setting a new historical high for the same period, with an annual increase of 4.1%. The Deputy Director mentioned that restaurants and beverage stores benefited from increased foot traffic during the holidays, along with promotional activities targeting popular events such as the Spring Festival, Valentine's Day, the 228 holiday, and baseball games, driving up sales for dining out and hot drinks.

Regarding whether inflation has affected domestic demand performance, the Ministry of Economic Affairs responded that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first two months of this year increased by 2.12% year-on-year, which was higher than the retail growth rate of 1.1%; the cost of dining out increased by 3.16% year-on-year, which was lower than the growth of the dining industry at 4%. As for whether inflation is keeping pace with the growth rate of the retail industry, they indicated that due to the seasonal factors of the Spring Festival, it is recommended to extend the observation period, and if people's incomes increase in line with price growth, the impact of inflation on domestic demand can be mitigated.

Looking ahead to March, it is expected that the retail and dining industries will benefit from holiday activities such as Women’s Day and White Day, along with the opening of the Nangang Department Store, as operators continue to promote multi-brand store openings and strengthen digital marketing strategies. It is estimated that retail sales in March will range from NT$389.1 billion to NT$400.8 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% to growth of 2.4%, and the retail industry in the first quarter is expected to grow by 0.6% to 1.6%. Simultaneously, the dining industry in March is expected to have revenues ranging from NT$84.2 billion to NT$86.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% to a decline of 4.3%, anticipating a growth rate for the dining industry in the first quarter of 3.2% to 4.2%.