讀後心得

The Ministry of Economic Affairs released the domestic consumption statistics for the first two months of this year, showing that the retail and restaurant industries reached a record high for the same period. However, due to the gas explosion incident at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung, department store sales in February dropped by 19.3% year-on-year, impacting overall domestic demand performance. The Ministry of Economic Affairs expects that with the opening of Nangang Department Store and factors such as White Day, there will still be growth opportunities for the retail and restaurant industries in the first quarter. Although the comparison base is high and the number of people traveling abroad has reached a new high, putting pressure on domestic consumption, the restaurant industry has shown growth potential boosted by holiday promotions. Looking ahead to March, it is anticipated that sales will remain flat or see slight growth.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs announced today that domestic consumption statistics show that the retail and food service revenue in the first two months of this year reached a historical high for the same period. However, due to the gas explosion incident at Taichung's Shin Kong Mitsukoshi, February's department store revenue saw a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%. This further impacted the domestic demand performance in February, indicating signs of recession. The Ministry of Economic Affairs forecasts that, with the opening of the Nangang department store and factors such as White Day, the retail and food service sectors still have the potential to maintain growth in the first quarter.

The deputy director of the Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that there are three main reasons for the underperformance of domestic demand in the first two months: First, the gap between the number of outbound travelers and inbound visitors has widened, with 1.61 million outbound trips in January, a historical high, which compressed domestic consumption. Second, February saw lower temperatures and relatively increased rainfall, resulting in decreased foot traffic in stores. Finally, the gas explosion incident at Taichung's Shin Kong Mitsukoshi also affected the retail sector of department stores, subsequently impacting related sectors such as food services.

According to the latest data, the retail revenue in February was NT$355.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative retail revenue for the first two months reached NT$801.5 billion, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In the retail sector with the highest market share, the comprehensive goods retail revenue for February was NT$112.2 billion, although still the second highest in history, it shifted to negative growth with an 11% year-on-year decrease; meanwhile, the cumulative revenue for the first two months in the comprehensive goods retail sector reached NT$261.7 billion, setting a historical high for the same period with a growth of 2.7%.

Analysis indicates that the workplace safety incident at Shin Kong Mitsukoshi in Taichung caused department store revenue to drop to NT$31.2 billion in February, a month-on-month decrease of 31.8% and a year-on-year decline of 19.3%; however, the cumulative department store revenue for the first two months still saw a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. In the supermarket sector, due to the expansion of store numbers and the support of promotional activities, there was a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; hypermarkets experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5% due to good sales of New Year goods; convenience stores benefited from travel during extended holidays and baseball events, as well as the demand for warm food and hot drinks due to low temperatures, leading to a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.

Additionally, the automobile retail sector saw an increase in working days compared to the same period last year, achieving revenue of NT$61.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%. Coupled with an increase in the number of imported cars and electric vehicles delivered, the cumulative retail revenue in the automobile sector for the first two months saw a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. However, the retail of fabrics and clothing experienced a decline due to a drop in domestic luxury sales momentum, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 21.6% in February, with a cumulative decrease of 2.8% for the first two months. In the food service sector, February's revenue was NT$82.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; the cumulative revenue for the first two months reached NT$188.5 billion, setting a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%.

Many media outlets inquired whether inflation was affecting domestic demand performance, to which the responsible parties responded that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first two months of this year saw a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, higher than the retail sector's growth of 1.1%; the year-on-year increase in dining out costs was 3.16%, lower than the food services sector growth of 4%. Regarding whether inflation has caught up with the growth rate of the retail sector, they pointed out that the last two months were affected by seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, thus a longer observation period should be taken; if people's incomes increase accordingly to cope with price growth, it might lessen the impact of inflation on domestic demand.

Looking ahead to March, it is anticipated that the retail and food service sectors will benefit from celebratory events such as International Women’s Day, White Day, and the opening of the Nangang department store. The Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that businesses will continue to promote multi-brand store openings and strengthen digital marketing strategies. Retail revenue in March is estimated to range between NT$389.1 billion and NT$400.8 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% to an increase of 2.4%. The retail sector in the first quarter is expected to grow by 0.6% to 1.6%. Meanwhile, the food service revenue in March is expected to fall between NT$84.2 billion and NT$86.7 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% to a decrease of 4.3%, and the growth rate in the food service sector for the first quarter is projected to be between 3.2% and 4.2%.