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German Scholar: Strengthening Economic Ties with China May Not Be a Wise Choice

German Scholar: Strengthening Economic Ties with China May Not Be a Wise Choice Image reproduced from 三立新聞網

According to a report by Deutsche Welle, Heribert Dieter, a political scientist from the University of Potsdam, published a commentary in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, criticizing that deepening economic relations with China may not be a wise choice for Europe. He noted that President Trump's protectionist policies have sparked dissatisfaction in EU countries, prompting some observers to consider China as a potential alternative partner, particularly during the upcoming EU-China summit in July where Beijing is looking to promote the establishment of new partnerships.

Dieter questions whether strengthening economic ties with China is truly the right decision from Europe's perspective. He recalls that, at the outset of Trump’s first term, some business leaders appeared to see China as a savior of globalization. In January 2017, China's leader Xi Jinping received widespread acclaim at the World Economic Forum in Davos for his speech advocating for a liberal economic order.

However, this positive appraisal of China has resurfaced in recent years. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently visited Beijing and expressed that Spain views China as a partner for economic cooperation in Europe. Michael Hüther, head of the German Economic Institute (IW), has urged that a world economic order without dependence on the U.S. should be considered, establishing relations with China on a new basis.

Meanwhile, Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), claimed that unlike the U.S., China aims to strengthen multilateral trade standards while America disrupts this order with its protectionist actions.

However, Dieter argues that China has long undermined the rules-based global trading order. He emphasized that the extensive use of subsidies in China puts its enterprises at an unfair advantage over those in other economies. According to statistics, more than 99% of listed Chinese companies received direct state funding in 2022.

Dieter also points out that China's impressive export figures mask an economic downturn that has already begun. By 2024, the trade surplus of China is projected to reach a record $992 billion. However, this does not reflect the strength of the Chinese economy, but rather shows that domestic demand is incredibly weak; Chinese consumers have lost trust in the country’s continued rise, leading to a restriction in personal consumption of foreign luxury items such as German cars or French fashion.

Additionally, it is noteworthy that last year, both China and the EU recorded their highest-ever trade surplus in goods. This indicates that both China and European countries, especially Germany, are suffering from weak domestic demand and declining consumer confidence.

In the political realm, Dieter questions whether strengthening geopolitical rivals to the U.S. is a smart move. Despite significant dissatisfaction with U.S. policies, one must not ignore that Europe and the U.S. share far more common ground than with China. China is neither a market economy nor can its citizens express dissatisfaction with their government. In 2019, the European Commission clearly stated that China is a systemic rival, promoting a different political model. Since then, it has become increasingly challenging for China and Europe to grow closer politically.

Furthermore, the article mentions that Washington is closely monitoring Brussels' considerations regarding rapprochement with China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Ben S. Bernanke, known for his strategic planning during the Trump administration, stated in April that if Europe draws closer to China, it would be akin to cutting its own throat.