Image reproduced from 中視新聞

The 2025 Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) was held yesterday (10th) in Rome, lasting two days. The conference is co-hosted by the governments of Italy and Ukraine, aiming to discuss the modernization recovery and rebuilding of Ukraine.

During the conference, it was pointed out that if Ukraine were to abandon its sovereignty over the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson, the enormous reconstruction costs could be shifted to Russia. This topic centers around a "peace plan" proposed by Trump to Ukraine, which stems from several memorandums submitted during the second round of peace talks in Istanbul on June 2 that clearly requested the Ukrainian military to withdraw from these regions.

According to data from April of this year, these four regions are currently occupied by Russian troops. If Ukraine is ultimately forced to relinquish control of these territories in the final peace agreement, an estimated reconstruction cost of approximately $200 billion would fall into Russian hands. The World Bank estimates that the investment needed for the recovery and reconstruction of these areas over the next ten years, from 2025 to 2035, will be at least $524 billion.

If these reconstruction costs are fully borne by Ukraine, it will lead to significant wealth and economic disparities in the post-war landscape, as well as political and social fragmentation. Despite both Russia and Ukraine having engaged in multiple rounds of peace negotiations, there has been no substantial progress towards a ceasefire, while the conflict continues to escalate and territorial issues remain unresolved.

The day before the conference, Russian forces launched the largest scale airstrikes against Kyiv, causing the war to escalate further. Kyiv was hit by a record number of Russian drones, resulting in one of the most severe attacks since the conflict began three years ago. German Chancellor Merkel condemned the attack on Kyiv, describing it as "indiscriminate attacks on civilians without legitimate military targets," asserting that it amounted to a terrorist attack against civilians.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken was participating in an ASEAN forum in Malaysia, discussing the Ukraine issue with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. After a 50-minute conversation, Blinken stated, "I will introduce a new approach to peace negotiations to President Trump," emphasizing the need to see how to end the conflict through a potential roadmap, although he refused to disclose details.

The ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict has lasted over three years, and in light of the stalled negotiations, Trump seems to have recognized that Russian President Putin does not have the intention to achieve peace. To facilitate peace between the two nations, it appears Ukraine may have to concede significantly. In addition to peace talks, the post-war recovery will be a long and arduous process, especially in economic terms.

According to data from the International Monetary Fund, from 2008 to 2022, Russia's economy grew to $2.3 trillion. However, since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Western sanctions have severely impacted its economy. During the ongoing war, Russia's nominal GDP in 2024 is expected to be only $2.2 trillion, significantly lower than that of China, the EU, or the United States.

Many countries have pledged to provide reconstruction funding to Ukraine, but key donor countries did not attend the conference. According to Italian media, President Meloni promised a substantial amount of funding at the conference for rebuilding Ukraine's critical infrastructure and restoring economic stability, with 5000 participants ranging from national leaders to government delegations, international organizations, and companies. However, this has faced criticism as previous recovery conferences had gathered experts to propose clear visions and practical actions. Additionally, EU member states supporting Ukraine and major aid providers like the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the World Bank did not participate in this conference.