The risk of a global economic recession may rise to 60%.
The Chief Global Economist of JPMorgan, Keisman, pointed out that if the United States continues to impose reciprocal tariffs, the risk of a global economic recession could rise from 40% to 60%. Multiple international financial institutions have issued warnings regarding this, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting that global economic growth this year will be only 3.3%, below the historical average. The World Trade Organization predicts that such tariffs will lead to a 1% contraction in global merchandise trade, while the European Union estimates that tariffs will increase export costs by 81 billion euros, impacting people's livelihoods. Bank of America estimates that if retaliatory measures are taken, corporate operating income could decline by 32%, and even without retaliation, inflation will reduce income by 5%. However, strategists believe that there is still an opportunity for negotiation between both sides, which could become a favorable factor for the market.
